On October 18th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to discuss the national economic performance in the first three quarters of 2024. During the conference, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics Sheng Laiyun shared insights into the government’s response to new economic challenges and issues this year. He highlighted that the Central Committee had made informed decisions and rolled out various policy measures aimed at stabilizing the economy, including large-scale equipment upgrades, programs for replacing old consumer goods, and adjustments in the real estate sector. Additionally, the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds and local government bonds has also been part of this strategic approach.
Sheng pointed out that in late September, the central government intensified its efforts by introducing a comprehensive set of policies that have effectively boosted market confidence. While some measures are already taking effect, others are being implemented, and he emphasized that this process will take time to fully manifest.
From the policies introduced in the first three quarters, Sheng noted several significant outcomes:
Firstly, there has been a notable release of domestic demand potential. In terms of consumption, thanks to the replacement scheme for old goods, strong retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment were observed, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in the first three quarters. Specifically, in September, retail sales related to products covered by the replacement policy—such as automobiles, home appliances, office supplies, and furniture—showed particularly strong performance. In July, the relevant authorities issued measures to support substantial equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacements, authorizing about 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds for the implementation of these “two new” policies. As a result, September saw a 0.4% growth in automotive retail sales, rebounding from several months of decline, while household appliance sales surged by 20.5%, outperforming August by a significant margin.
Secondly, these policies are effectively promoting production in related industries. For instance, in the first three quarters, manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding, broadcasting equipment, and telecommunications equipment reported year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 19.8%, and 12.9%, respectively. The production of food manufacturing machinery and agricultural processing equipment also saw impressive increases.
Thirdly, these policies have played a crucial role in stabilizing and reviving the economy. Positive changes in both production and demand have led to favorable shifts in key economic indicators, with signs of stabilization observed in September.
Fourthly, there has been an improvement in market expectations. The sustained emphasis on macroeconomic policies has lifted market confidence, with companies feeling optimistic about the fourth quarter. The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 points, and production indices also saw an uptick.
Lastly, market activity has been revitalized, as evidenced by rebounds in both the stock and real estate markets, with increased trading volumes.
In conclusion, Sheng expressed optimism regarding the government’s series of policies aimed at ensuring stable growth, real estate markets, and market expectations. He noted the importance of local authorities swiftly implementing complementary measures to maximize the potential of these policies and solidify the momentum of economic recovery.