Recent reports indicate that home sales in California have stalled as of September, reaching their lowest levels in nine months. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) released findings showing that despite interest rates dropping to their lowest since spring, September did not see a boost in sales.
Data reveals that the number of single-family home transactions in September reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 253,010 units. This reflects a 3.4% decrease from August’s total of 262,050 units, though it marks a 5.1% increase compared to the revised figures from the same month last year, which stood at 240,840 units. For the first nine months of this year, sales have seen a slight uptick of 0.9% compared to the same period in 2023.
C.A.R. President Melanie Barker noted that as the market enters its typical slow season, housing supply has gradually improved over the past few months. “With prices likely to dip further in the coming months, the fourth quarter may present a good opportunity for potential buyers looking to re-enter the market, especially as interest rates trend toward historical averages,” she stated.
The median home price across the state decreased by 2.3% in September from August’s $888,740 to $868,150. However, compared to the same time last year, this figure shows a growth of 2.9%. This marks the fifteenth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, albeit the slowest growth rate since July 2023. As we move into the traditional slow season, there is a possibility of further price declines, but year-over-year growth is expected to continue for the remainder of the year.
Sales of higher-priced homes have been impacting price fluctuations, although their influence on the state’s median price growth has weakened in recent months. Sales of homes priced at $1 million or more have slowed to just 3.9%, while the market for homes priced below $500,000 has seen an 8.6% decline year-over-year. If the proportion of these high-end homes continues to drop into the fall, the growth of median prices may decelerate even further in the upcoming months.
Examining regional sales, all major areas except for the Central Valley and Central Coast saw sales exceed last year’s levels in September. The Far North region had the most significant growth at 7.2%, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area at 5.1% and Southern California at 1.1%.
Among the 53 counties tracked by C.A.R., 27 reported year-over-year increases in home sales, with 12 of those counties experiencing growth exceeding 10%. Lassen County recorded the highest increase at 78.6%, followed by Siskiyou at 75.0% and Mariposa at 50.0%. Conversely, 25 counties saw declines, with 8 counties experiencing drops over 10%, the largest being Mono at 50.0%.
When it comes to median home prices, all major areas except for two saw increases in September compared to last year. The Central Coast experienced the highest gain at 4.6%, followed by the Central Valley at 4.0% and Southern California at 3.7%. Conversely, the San Francisco Bay Area saw the largest decline at 2.6%, followed closely by the Far North region at 1.4%.
C.A.R. Chief Economist Jordan Levine pointed out that economic uncertainty and expectations for low interest rates may be causing many buyers to delay their purchasing decisions, resulting in two consecutive months of sales declines that have culminated in the year’s lowest point. However, he cautioned that the recent rebound in bond yields suggests that rates will continue to fluctuate, and waiting may not be the best strategy for aspiring homeowners.