The United Nations has issued a stark warning regarding the current climate policies of nations around the world, projecting that global temperatures could rise more than 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels before the end of this century. This increase is more than double the target outlined in the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has emphasized that the ability of countries to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement may “disappear within a few years,” urging that “we are running out of time.”
On October 24, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its annual “2024 Emissions Gap Report,” which evaluates nations’ commitments to combat climate change and compares them to the actions needed. The report warns that if governments fail to implement more aggressive carbon reduction measures, global temperatures could rise by 3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is described as a “catastrophic” temperature increase.
In contrast, the Paris Climate Agreement, signed by nations in 2015, aims to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Guterres pointed out that “if world leaders do not bridge the carbon gap, we are heading toward climate disaster.” Currently, global temperatures are approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than those recorded before the industrial era.
The report highlights that greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, reaching a record high of 57.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Based on current commitments, global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, a conclusion consistent with findings from the past three years. However, the report notes that many countries, particularly those in the G20, have made little progress toward achieving their 2030 climate goals.
This report was presented during the “16th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity” (CBD COP16) held in Colombia. It estimates that nations need to collectively commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 42% annually before 2030, escalating to 57% by 2035.
Countries will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the “29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change” (COP29) on November 11, where they will build upon last year’s agreement to phase out fossil fuels and push for increased climate action.